A Computer Sim Tournament to Determine the GOAT of Men’s Olympic Hockey
With the 2022 Winter Olympic Games approaching, we present Part 2 of our series of articles on which Olympic Men’s Hockey team is the greatest of all time (GOAT). In Part 1 (2017) of our work, we used analytics and statistics to study the best Olympic hockey teams in history.
In Part 2 of the series, we perform computer simulations to run tournaments of the best Olympic teams in history. Readers may want to read Part 1 of our article to see the main inputs and metrics (such as ELO, tournament performance, and more) that comprise our computer sim. Our goal is to blend statistical facts and information including, but not limited to, categories of offense, defense, goaltending, strength of schedule, talent, preparation, tactics, and more.
Similar to our first article, we include Gold medal teams since 1932. We also included the 1980 Soviet team, which was upset by the 1980 USA “Miracle on Ice” team. Part 2 has been updated to reflect additional thoughts, especially related to how a a hot goaltender can drive teams to outperformance — and Olympic hockey gold.
Now, we agree with some purists who will say that this tournament is impossible. Some will say that the game has changed over time; that equipment and training methods have improved. However, we use analytics to convert each Olympic team’s performance and dominance to create a sort of time machine. Our goal is to find pure talent and skill — as we compare all of these great Olympic champions.
In particular, our analysis and quantitative “transformations” attempt to put the game on a neutral surface and a neutral set of rules. In addition, it is noteworthy that we actually focused on two tournaments or brackets.
The Impact of Hot Goalies
Most sporting events (and Olympic hockey is no exception) typically see the cream of the crop rise to the top. Strong Olympic hockey teams are able to overwhelm the competition and make their way to the medal rounds. In addition, a hot goaltender can have a major impact on results — especially during relatively short Olympic hockey tournaments.
Based on the data available, we flagged several Olympic gold medal teams and standout goaltenders who made a difference. In recent years, Carey Price led the 2014 Canadian team to a gold medal with a sparkling .972 save percentage. Vladislav Tretiak’s sharp play made the already powerhouse 1984 Soviet team one of the strongest gold medal teams ever — in some ways avenging the 1980 upset loss to Team USA.
However, by some measures, goaltender Jim Craig’s level of outperformance for Team USA (relative to other goalies) during the 1980 Olympics was amongst the strongest of any goalie’s performance in Olympic history. Coach Herb Brooks selected goaltender Jim Craig not because he was necessarily the best goaltender available. Brooks noted that Craig was a winner: a champion who led Boston University to the 1978 NCAA title. And Brooks handpicked Craig to be his team’s goalie because Craig seemed to have the ability to “get into the zone.”
On the thirtieth anniversary of the Miracle on Ice, we ran Monte Carlo simulations for the New York Times to study “How Miraculous Was The Miracle?”
The Impact of Tournament Set-up or Structure
It is interesting that the format of a tournament can impact results dramatically. In most cases, the cream will rise to the top. In addition, as we know, anything can happen in a sporting event. However, there is an element of luck and chance in terms of how a tournament draw actually works.
For actual computer simulations, we took the most commonly-occurring event for our tournament results. For the Final Four of each bracket, we include a summary of the seven-game series.
We focused on two tournament brackets, that differ by grouping.
- One tournament groups the teams into four brackets based on time period or era. That is, teams are grouped by the year in which they won Olympic Gold. The other tournament groups the teams into four brackets by region.
- It is interesting that the tournament set-up can influence the results of a tournament. However, no matter what, we generally see that “cream rises to the top.” Here are the groupings for the Time Period Tournament. Teams play a round-robin within each group, with the best team from each group advancing to the Final Four.
Groupings: Tournament by Era (or Time Period)
Group A
’32 Canada
’36 Great Britain
’48 Canada
’52 Canada
’56 Soviet Union
Group B
’60 USA
’64 Soviet Union
’68 Soviet Union
’72 Soviet Union
’76 Soviet Union
Group C
’80 Soviet Union
’80 USA
’84 Soviet Union
’88 Soviet Union
’92 Unified
’94 Sweden
Group D
’98 Czech Republic
’02 Canada
’06 Sweden
’10 Canada
’14 Canada
’18 Olympic Athletes from Russia
Tournament By Era — Final Four
The following teams emerged from the Time Period Tournament or Groupings.
- ’48 Canada — in 1948, the Ottawa RCAF (Royal Canadian Air Force) Flyers represented Canada at the Winter Olympics. Although Canada and the Soviet Union have dominated Olympic Hockey, Czechoslovakia has often been a close second. In 1948, both Canada and Czechoslovakia finished undefeated — with their match-up ending in a 0–0 tie. Canada won the gold medal due to goal differential in 1948. Although Canada won the gold medal by a hair in 1948, the 1948 Canadian team emerged from our tournament grouping — with the 1936 British team hanging close.
- ’76 Soviet Union — In the year 1976, the actual 1976 Soviet team was again challenged by a Czech team (the 1976 Czech team). Notably, the Czech team suffered from the flu and failed a drug doping test. In the 1976 real-life Olympic final, the Czech team actually led 2–0 after one period, but eventually succumbed to the Soviet team. However, in our tournament grouping, the 1976 team emerged with a consistently strong performance.
- ’84 Soviet Union — After the 1980 Miracle on Ice, when Team USA upset the Soviets, the 1984 team came out with a vengeance. Led by Vladislav Tretiak, the 1984 team won in convincing fashion, both in 1984, and in our computer simulation tournament grouping.
- ’14 Canada — The 2014 Canadian team, led by goaltender Carey Price, put on one of the more dominating Olympic performances in recent history.
We also grouped the Olympic teams by region, as follows.
Groupings — Tournament by Region
Group A — Historical Soviet Teams
’56 Soviet Union
’64 Soviet Union
’68 Soviet Union
’72 Soviet Union
Group B — Recent Soviet Teams
’76 Soviet Union
’80 Soviet Union
’84 Soviet Union
’88 Soviet Union
’92 Soviet Union
’18 Olympic Athletes from Russia
Group C — Canada
’32 Canada
’48 Canada
’52 Canada
’02 Canada
’10 Canada
’14 Canada
Group D — Other
’36 Great Britain
’60 USA
’80 USA
’94 Sweden
’98 Czech Republic
’06 Sweden
Tournament by Region — Final Four
- ’56 Soviet Union — In the year 1956, the Soviet Union defeated Team Canada 2–0 even though Canada had the edge in shots 23–9. Goalie Nikolai Puchlov was also a strong presence in the net for our computer tournament, as the 1956 team emerged from their grouping.
- ’84 Soviet Union — repeat Final Four appearance.
- ’48 Canada — repeat Final Four appearance.
- ’36 Great Britain — The 1936 Great Britain team had goaltender Jimmy Foster who made 219 saves on the 222 shots he faced during those Winter Olympics. This grouping was very even, but the ’36 Great Britain team advanced to the Final Four.
Interestingly, there is some overlap in the Final Four of the two tournaments, but all four teams are not the same! It is noteworthy that the set-up of a tournament does, indeed, influence results!
Now, we let the computer run simulations and complete the two tournaments. The Final Four teams are seeded according to performance in the groupings. Here are the results:
Finalists: Tournament by Era
In the Tournament by Era, the 2014 Canadian team was the number four seed and faced off against the top-seeded 1984 Soviet team. Even with a balanced effort and a strong performance by goalie Carey Price, the 1984 Soviets defeated Canada 4 games to 2.
In the other semifinal, the 1948 Canadians defeated 1976 Russia in a seven game thriller. Ultimately, the 1948 team won a close series — and a tight game seven — mainly due to their less free-wheeling style. The team was used to close games against tougher competition and prevailed in seven games.
The Final saw the 1984 Soviets against the 1948 Canadians.
Finalists: Tournament by Region
The 1948 Canadian hockey team earned the top seed due to their performance in Group C (that included other Canadian Olympic Gold medalists). In the semifinals, Team Canada 1948 faced off against the 1936 Great Britain team. Team GB won several close games in their Group thanks to a tight defense and goaltender Jimmy Foster’s imitation of a brick wall.
During the semifinal series, the Canadian team defeated Team GB in convincing fashion twice, with the other four tight games being split. Canada eventually prevailed in six games, but not before Foster shut them out in one game; and held them to two goals in the majority of the games.
In the other semifinal, the 1984 Soviets met the 1956 Soviets. The 1984 juggernaut dispatched the strong 1956 Soviets in 5 games.
Thus, this tournament also saw the 1984 Soviets face off against the 1948 Canadians in the finals.
The Finals: 1984 Soviets vs. 1948 Canadians
No matter how we sliced and diced the numbers and tournaments, the 1948 Canadians and 1984 Soviets rose to the top. Both teams had strong firepower on the offensive side — and a tight defense when needed.
The story of Olympic hockey also needs to mention the disparity in level amongst the nations. Some Olympic teams are able to beat other countries by scores of 9–0 or worse. However, a better measure of team performance is how a team performs against its closest competition.
In the seven game series, both teams were able to win one game convincingly. However, the combination of a hungry and focused ’84 Soviet team (after the 1980 Miracle on Ice) — combined with the Soviet’s roster of many all-time greats in international Russian hockey — led to a Soviet win in six games. Vladislav Tretiak and the rest of his team, including defenseman Fetisov, center Larionov, and left-winger Krutov — stayed focused — just like they did in 1984.
The GOAT (Greatest of All Time)
It is interesting to us that some people still consider the 1980 Soviet team to be the strongest team in history. However, our computer simulation is based on several factors, including performance in the actual Olympics. Our computer sim crowns the 1984 Soviet team as the GOAT. There’s much to be said about drive and focus — and especially determination after a defeat (like the Soviets suffered just four years earlier in Lake Placid).
Final Four by Era
Final Four by Region
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Carlton Chin holds both graduate and undergraduate degrees from MIT, and is an investment officer and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.
Jon Hartley and Bob Gibson contributed reporting. Jon Hartley is an economist, policy expert, and member of Forbes 30 under 30 (2017). Jon has worked with the Dallas Cowboys in sports analytics and has been featured by CNBC, Forbes, and the Huffington Post. Jon holds degrees from Harvard, Wharton, and the U of Chicago — and is a PhD candidate at Stanford. Bob Gibson is a fan and historian of Olympic Hockey.