2021 NHL Finals & Who Will Win: (+Hot Goalies & Luck vs. Skill)
The 2021 Stanley Cup Finals are here, and sports fans — indeed, people around the world — are happy that the world is generally moving past the Covid-19 pandemic. Last year, the NHL completed its season at playoff bubbles, without fans in attendance. This year, hockey teams and arenas have increasingly been expanding attendance as the playoffs progressed. We hope that the Delta variant of Covid-19 will be controlled relatively well.
Below, we review our regular “Who Will Win” analysis for the Stanley Cup Finals. In addition, with the Olympics fast-approaching, we share a few links that may be of interest.
Other Hockey Articles
We will be republishing Part 2 of the Men’s Olympic Hockey GOAT article shortly.
Who Will Win?
Over the years, Dr. Jay Granat, a psychotherapist, and I have studied championship factors related to sports psychology to predict the winners of major championships. Much of our research has focused on quantifying concepts such as leadership, consistency, and minimizing errors.
These factors are often overlooked by sports fans and analysts. Our regular series of “Who Will Win” quant facts predictions have been correct about 65% of the time — sometimes picking underdogs! The results are based on championships going back several decades — and across major sports including the NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, and professional tennis and golf.
What do our championship factors say about this year’s NHL Stanley Cup Finals between the Tampa Bay Lighting and Montreal Canadiens?
Big Game Experience
Big game experience and the related factor of confidence play a large role in winning. This is true across every major sport we have studied. Tampa Bay won the Cup last year, and takes this factor. Edge: Tampa Bay.
Leadership
When a championship is within reach, leaders can often lift his or her game and that of his teammates. The team leader can sometimes will his or her way to victory. Tampa Bay has a double threat in the form of skaters Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. Point led the Lightning in points (not a typo there!) during the regular season and approached an NHL playoff record by scoring goals in nine straight playoff games the past few weeks.
After missing the regular season due to injury, Kucherov has been a force in this year’s playoffs. Kucherov leads the league with a huge 27 points in 18 playoff games. And in case you were wondering, Kucherov led the Lightning with 85 points during the regular season last year. Edge: Tampa Bay.
Leadership Between the Goalposts
Leadership between the “posts” can lead a hockey team to victory. The championship factors we list in our articles are correct about 65% of the time. Hot goalies can win the big game. In the New York Times article we mention above, Herb Brooks chose goalie Jim Craig who he believed had the potential to get very hot and get into the zone.
This edge goes to Tampa Bay and goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy’s superior save percentage during the regular season. Edge: Tampa Bay.
On Hot Goaltenders & Getting Into the Zone
While Tampa Bay gets the nod based on regular season statistics, it is noteworthy that Montreal goaltender Carey Price has matched Vasilevskiy’s heroics during this year’s playoff run. In addition, it is interesting that when Price was in his early twenties, his save percentage during the playoffs was slightly lower than during the regular season.
However, in each of his past three playoff runs, Carey Price has posted save percentages greater than .930 (exceeding his regular season percentage each year). Carey Price seems to be able to bring it when needed — and may be evidence that “getting into the zone” is a skill that can be learned.
An interesting note about New York Islander goaltender Billy Smith during the Islanders’ Stanley Cup Years in the early 1980s. Billy Smith got some people’s attention during the Islanders’ disappointing 1978–79 playoff run when he posted a 4–1 record and a sparkling (and league-leading) .934 save percentage during the playoffs. Smith then led the Islanders to four straight Stanley Cups during the 1979–1983 Stanley Cup seasons.
Note for Islander fans and sports psychologists: Billy Smith’s save percentage for six consecutive playoff runs was higher than his regular season percentage for each playoff run — six years in a row. Some athletes are able to achieve this nirvana of “getting into the zone.”
Defense
Our research shows that the old adage, “Defense wins championships,” is true — across every sport we have studied. Defense is associated with hard-nosed, gritty work — and is more consistent than flashy offense. Our work quantifying concepts of sports psychology work has shown that “consistency” is a championship factor. This factor goes to the Lightning in goals against average. Edge: Tampa Bay.
Summary and Future Work
The championship factors — and all key statistical categories — decidedly favor the defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning over the upstart Montreal Canadiens. Our official quant fact prediction is on Tampa Bay.
Note, however, that our blurb about Montreal goaltender Carey Price was for a reason. A goalie who gets into the zone can impact results materially. And — of all the major sports out there — hockey is the sport where luck has the largest impact relative to actual skill. We will be studying this skill versus luck aspect more closely over the next several months.
Interestingly, the sportsbooks seem to agree. Even though Tampa Bay is an overwhelming favorite over a Montreal team that barely finished above .500 during the regular season, you can only get about 2.2 to 1 odds on Montreal to win the finals. (This is lower than expected based on various statistics.) Enjoy the Finals!
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Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer focused on portfolio strategy and data-driven models. Carlton has been a professor at a local university and worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.
Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, named one of America’s Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest, has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. He is the owner of StayInTheZone.com and has authored several books on sport psychology — appearing on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.