Who Will Win The College Football Championship (on January 11, 2021)?
The Alabama Crimson Tide and Ohio State Buckeyes advanced from their College Football Playoff semifinal games and meet for this year’s College Football National Championship game. What do our “championship factors” have to say about the title game?
Several years ago, we performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”
Since that time, our published “quant fact predictions” have been correct almost 65% of the time — sometimes picking underdogs to win championships. What do the numbers say about this year’s College Football Championship? Since Ohio State did not play a full season due to COVID-19, we applied our championship factors on a “per game” factor, where applicable.
Big Game Experience
Across every sport we have studied, the experience and confidence associated with “big game experience” has been related to winning championships. Alabama has made it to two out of the last three title games, so they take this championship factor: Edge: Alabama.
Consistency
The consistency factor helps athletes and teams get into a rhythm, especially during pressure-packed championships. Interestingly, this year’s NFL Pittsburgh Steelers started their season undefeated through much of the year. When the Steelers started to have difficulties, sports analysts said that the Steelers showed that even in today’s era of aerial football, teams need some balance in their offense.
This is particularly true when the competition gets tougher. For college football, we apply the consistency factor to the running game — both on offense and defense. When on offense, Ohio State averaged 6.0 yards per carry this season, versus Alabama’s 5.1 yards per carry. Edge: Ohio State.
Consistency — Defense
In a similar manner, if teams can limit their opponent’s consistency on offense, it increases their chances of winning the big game. In this department, Ohio State and Alabama both limited their opponents to 3.2 yards per carry. Edge: None.
Minimizing Errors — Leadership
Even with today’s high-scoring offenses in college football, the statistic that rises to the top in this category is “fewer interceptions per game.” It makes sense that this comes from the most important position — and the leader of the team: the quarterback. Teams with fewer interceptions per game have won about two-thirds of championship games going back over several decades. This edge goes to Alabama and Mac Jones, who threw just 4 interceptions (versus 36 TDs this season). Edge: Alabama.
Defense
The numbers show that defense does indeed win championships, and in this area, Alabama’s 19 points per game yielded edges Ohio State’s 22 points yielded per game. On offense, both teams averaged over 40 points per game, so it will be interesting to see the game’s final score. Edge: Alabama.
Summary
The championship factors favor Alabama 3–1 (with one factor tied), so our official quant fact prediction is on Alabama. Enjoy the game!
Other Popular Articles
Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.
Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com. He has worked with athletes of all levels, including high school athletes and Olympians. He was named one of Golf Digest’s Top Ten Mental Gurus and has been on Good Morning America, the New York Times, and ESPN.