Who Will Win the Big Game? Alabama vs. Georgia on 1/10/22
College football’s championship game features the Alabama Crimson Tide versus the Georgia Bulldogs. What do our championship factors say about this year’s title game?
Several years ago, we (my friend and colleague, Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist — and I) performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”
Since that time, our published “quant fact predictions” have been correct 65% of the time — sometimes picking underdogs to win championships. What do the numbers say about this year’s College Football Championship?
Defense
Perhaps a boring mantra, but our research shows that defense does indeed win championships. One exception was the NHL’s high-scoring Wayne Gretzky period, where offenses led the way for a short period. Earlier in the season, Georgia’s defense was being considered “historically great.”
Georgia went on to lose 41–24 to a motivated Alabama team on December 4th. Georgia yielded almost one-third of their season’s total points that day. Even so, Georgia has given up about half as many points as compared to Alabama this season (135 to 269).
It will be interesting to see if the first Alabama-Georgia game was a blip, or if Georgia does indeed have a “historically great defense” and bounces back in a revenge game. There are multiple interesting storylines! Edge: Georgia.
Big Game Experience
Although Alabama struggled a bit during the middle part of the season, Alabama has consistently reached the College Football Playoff and won the big game a year ago. Georgia had a tremendous season until they met Alabama several weeks ago. The numbers show that the team with recent big game experience has an edge in title games. Edge: Alabama.
Consistency
The consistency factor helps athletes and teams get into a groove, especially during pressure-packed title games. This is particularly true when the competition gets tougher. For college football, we apply the consistency factor to the running game — both on offense and defense. When on offense, Georgia averaged more per carry than Alabama, 5.3 yards per carry to 4.3. Edge: Georgia.
Consistency — Defense
In a similar manner, if teams can limit their opponent’s consistency on offense, it increases their chances of winning the big game. Interestingly, although analysts talk about Georgia’s great defense, Alabama edges Georgia in this area, 2.5 versus 2.7 yards per carry. Edge: Alabama.
Minimizing Errors — Leadership
In today’s high-scoring offenses in college football, the statistic that rises to the top of this “minimizing errors” category is “fewer interceptions thrown.” It makes sense that this comes from the most important position — and the leader of the team: the quarterback. Teams with fewer interceptions during the season have won about two-thirds of championship games going back over several decades — in both college football and the NFL. This edge goes to Alabama, led by Bryce Young, who threw just 5 interceptions (versus 46 TDs this season). Alabama threw the ball much more than Georgia, but tossed fewer than half the number of Georgia’s interceptions (12). Edge: Alabama.
Summary
The championship factors favor Alabama 3–2, so our official quant fact prediction is on Alabama. At the time of this writing, Alabama is about a 2.5 to 3 point underdog. Enjoy the game!
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Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.
Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com. He has worked with athletes of all levels, including high school athletes and Olympians. He was named one of Golf Digest’s Top Ten Mental Gurus and has been on Good Morning America, the New York Times, and ESPN.