Who Will Win the 2020 World Series? Dodgers-Rays
Even after a Covid-19 shortened season and an extra round of playoffs, Major League Baseball’s top two teams will meet in the 2020 MLB World Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays, the teams with the best records in their respective leagues, start the World Series on Tuesday, October 20, 2020. What do our “championship factors” have to say about the World Series?
Several years ago, we performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”
Since that time, our published “quant fact predictions” have been correct about 65% of the time — sometimes picking underdogs to win championships. What do the numbers say about this year’s World Series?
Big Game Experience
Experience in “ big moments” and “the big game” is related to winning championships. Whether it is merely experience — or perhaps this experience brings a certain level of confidence — a team that possesses recent experience in the big game (in this case, World Series appearances over the past three years), gains an advantage in the expected probability of winning the championship. The Dodgers have reached the World Series two out of the past three seasons. Although recent Dodger teams have not won the World Series, this edge goes to the Dodgers. Edge: Los Angeles.
Leadership
Leadership is truly key — in everything we study, and not only in sports predictions! Although we measure leadership differently in every sport, the themes are very common. For instance, in football, the quarterback is a key position. In basketball, we seek out leadership in the form of top-scoring players and for college hoops — All-American players.
For MLB, we use the top of each team’s pitching rotations. During this shortened season, this factor (surprisingly, to some) favors Tampa Bay, with Tyler Glasnow and Josh Fleming, both on pace to win about 15 games (over a regular-length season). Although Clayton Kershaw remains one of the best starters in MLB, only Kershaw was on a pace to win double-digit games for the Dodgers. The Rays’ top two pitchers can compete with the Dodgers’ best, as evidenced by Glasnow’s and Fleming’s WHIPs (Walk + Hits per Innings Pitched) in the 1.1 range. Edge: Tampa Bay.
Minimizing Errors
To win championships, athletes need to perform at a high level — while minimizing mistakes. Interestingly, although errors occur relatively infrequently — especially when compared to hits — a team’s fielding percentage rank in its respective league is an indicator of winning titles. Whether this is a result of deflating morale, or merely an “extra out,” the data shows this “quant fact” to be correct about two-thirds of the time. Tampa Bay edged Los Angeles in championship factor. Edge: Tampa Bay.
Consistency
When the level of competition is stronger — as it will be in a championship series — consistency helps athletes and teams get into a rhythm. Indeed, when we study flashy statistics like QB touchdowns in football, or HRs in MLB, we see that these stats are not good predictors of success in championships.
However, consistency factors lead to championships in every sport we study. For baseball, team batting average is relevant. In today’s “power” game, home runs are a big influence during the regular season. Today’s focus on home runs has meant less focus on hitting for average.
Indeed, this is reflected in mediocre league ranks in batting average for both Los Angeles and Tampa Bay. Although both teams were middling in this category, the Dodgers slightly outperformed the Rays. This quant fact is relevant during pressure-filled games. Edge: Los Angeles.
Pitching / Defense
With the quant facts currently tied at 2–2, we reviewed our research and used pitching (and defense) as our tiebreaker. Across all sports, there is usually an area that “dominates” in terms of winning championships. In most sports, that is defense; and in baseball, the old mantra “pitching wins championships” is true. While Tampa Bay took the “top of the pitching rotation” leadership category, the Dodgers led the National League in team ERA as well as runs against per game. The Dodgers’ “pitching by committee” approach led them to the best record in baseball. Edge: Los Angeles.
Summary
The Dodgers take our championship factors 3–2. Some view the Dodgers as overwhelming favorites, but the Rays have quietly shown that they are a force to be reckoned with. Indeed, certain quant facts (such as pitching leadership and minimizing errors) show that the Rays will be a pesky opponent for the Dodgers.
Still, our quant fact prediction is on the Dodgers to win their first World Series since 1988! Enjoy the games!
Other Popular Articles
Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment manager and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN. Carlton’s class at Rowan University contributed reporting.
Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com. He has worked with athletes of all levels, including high school athletes and Olympians. He was named one of Golf Digest’s Top Ten Mental Gurus and has been on Good Morning America, the New York Times, and ESPN.