Super Bowl LVI (2022): Who Will Win the Big Game?
The Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams kick-off Super Bowl LVI in about one week. About a decade ago, a colleague and I performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL.
Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”
The research launched a series of articles that has been published by the Wall Street Journal and New York Times — and has picked the correct winner of major sporting events about 65% of the time. Here is one of the earlier articles from the NY Times.
What do our “championship factors” say about this year’s Super Bowl?
Leadership and Minimizing Errors
In today’s high-octane pass-oriented NFL, the quarterback is the most important player on the field. Interestingly, the QB metric most related to winning the Super Bowl is NOT glitzy TD or QB Rating statistics, but fewest interceptions! The team with fewer INTs during the regular season has gone on to win close to 70% of all Super Bowls. Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow completed a huge 70.4% of his passes while averaging a chunky 8.9 yards per attempt — and still managed to throw fewer INTs than the the Rams’ Stafford. Edge: Cincinnati.
Consistency — Offense
Consistency-related factors can help teams and athletes get into a rhythm during the pressure of playoffs and championships. In fact, the higher level of competition can sometimes stifle a team’s offense. Thus, the numbers show that certain consistency factors across every sport are correlated to winning the big game. Cincinnati and Los Angeles are neck and neck in this category, but we give the nod to the Bengals and running back Joe Mixon. Slight Edge: Cincinnati.
Consistency — Defense
The numbers show that defense really does championships. This is true to such a degree, that our key consistency factor related to winning the Super Bowl is on the defensive side. That is, if your defense can prevent your opponent from mounting a good consistent offense, you are well on the way to winning the big game. Cincinnati was above-average in this category, but Los Angeles was amongst the league leaders. Edge: Los Angeles.
Defense
As a follow-up to our consistency factor related to defense, we review each team’s overall defense. In tightly contested games, the hard work and consistency of defense shines through. About two-thirds of the time, the team with the better defense brings home the title. Los Angeles edges Cincinnati very slightly, especially when considering strength of schedule. Slight Edge: Los Angeles.
Big Game Experience
Our book and series of articles is “Who Will Win the Big Game?” And, it turns out that “big game experience” is one of the key factors related to winning championships. This may be due to confidence, experience — or the simple fact that getting to the finals again means that your team is not a fluke. No matter what: the fact remains that big game experience is correlated to winning titles. The Rams’ core got to the Super Bowl three years ago and takes this factor. Edge: Los Angeles.
Summary
The championship factors favor Los Angeles 2.5–1.5, so the LA Rams are our official quant fact prediction for this year’s Super Bowl. Enjoy the big game!
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Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.
Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com. He has worked with athletes of all levels, including high school athletes and Olympians. He was named one of Golf Digest’s Top Ten Mental Gurus and has been on Good Morning America, the New York Times, and ESPN.