Can Numbers Make Sense of 2021’s March Madness?
This year’s March Madness action has busted more than a few brackets. Now that the NCAA Tournament is down to the Final Four, can our quant fact numbers make sense of the remainder of the men’s college basketball season?
About ten years ago, we performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”
Since that time, our published results have predicted the winner of major sporting events about 65% of the time, sometimes picking underdogs. Our predictions have been particularly successful for the Final Four (NYTimes.com).
Big Game Experience
“Big game experience” is one of the key factors related to winning the big game. Whether this is due to confidence, experience — or the simple fact that getting to the finals again means that your team is not a fluke — the fact remains that big game experience is correlated to winning title games. Only Gonzaga has advanced to the Final Four over the past three tournaments. Due to Covid-19, last year’s NCAA Tournament was cancelled, so we used the previous three years. Edge: Gonzaga.
Leadership — Coach
For college basketball, we review leadership in two ways. Leadership is key in so many things in life, whether it is in sports, business, or everyday settings. Leadership can focus efforts and more efficiently achieve goals.
Here, we review leadership “behind the bench” — in the form of the coach. Gonzaga’s head coach, Mark Few, is the only Final Four coach with a Final Four victory. Houston’s coach, Kelvin Sampson, has advanced to one Final Four previously. Edge: Gonzaga; honorable mention for Houston.
Leadership — On The Court
Leadership on the court is key to winning titles as well. For this championship factor, we review the number of AP All-Americans — both first team and second team — for each team.
Many analysts have marveled at Gonzaga’s 2020–21 team which boasts three first and second team All-Americans. Many believe that Gonzaga’s stars will draw very high draft picks in the NBA Draft. Baylor also boasts an All-American, one of the best talents in college basketball, PG Jared Butler. Edge: Gonzaga (3); Baylor (1).
Defense
Although basketball fans enjoy improved long-range shooting from three-point territory in both college and professional basketball, the numbers show that defense remains a mainstay when it comes to the winning playoff games and winning championships. Here, we use opponent field goal (FG%) as our defensive measure. Houston led the country by a wide margin in this area. Interestingly, Gonzaga was second, but a distant second (.373 vs. .412). Edge: Houston, Gonzaga (in this order).
Consistency
Consistency factors help athletes and teams get into a rhythm that helps them get into the zone more easily. Indeed, my co-author, Dr. Jay Granat, often emphasizes rituals with his clients. We use FG% as a measure of how teams are able to get into a positive rhythm. Edge: Gonzaga, Baylor (in this order).
Mental Toughness, Minimizing Errors & Hard Work
Sports fans, analysts and sports psychologists often highlight hard-to-measure factors such as mental toughness, the hard work of focusing on fundamentals, and minimizing errors. These intangibles are often hard to capture, but research has shown that there is a relationship between winning championships and this area. For college basketball, we focus on free throw % (FT%). Free throws can be important in tightly-contested games; teams with a higher FT% during the regular season have won close to two-thirds of championship games. Edge: Gonzaga, Houston (in this order).
Summary
The championship factors do not show anything surprising with Gonzaga. Gonzaga is our quant fact prediction for both the semi-final and championship game (if they advance). The other game is very difficult to call. Both Baylor and Houston hold two championship factors, and we would not normally qualify an “honorable mention” as an official prediction.
Thus, we have no official prediction for the Houston-Baylor game, although with Baylor a slight favorite, we think there is value on Houston. In the title game, Gonzaga is our selection, and if UCLA advances, either Baylor or Houston is our quant fact prediction. Enjoy the Final Four!
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Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.
Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com. He has worked with athletes of all levels, including high school athletes and Olympians. He was named one of Golf Digest’s Top Ten Mental Gurus and has been on Good Morning America, the New York Times, and ESPN.