2022 Super Bowl Square Pool Odds — Updated for Recent Rules
Do you have your Super Bowl Square Pool box yet? The Super Bowl kicks off in less than two weeks — and many people are getting in on the popular 10x10 Square Pool. The great thing about these pools is that it is totally random, so if you are watching the game, you have a “fair” rooting interest.
How A Square Pool or Box Pool Works
If you are participating in a square pool (where only the last digit [or one’s column] for each team counts), you select a box on a 10 by 10 grid. Numbers from zero to nine are then randomly assigned across the top and down the side. Thus, each of the 100 boxes represents a digit for each team, such as Cincinnati 4, and Los Angeles 7.
If you haven’t played a square pool or box pool before, here is an example. If the score at the end of first quarter is Cincinnati 14 — LA 7, the numbers that win the first quarter are Cincy 4 — LA 7. Remember that the “one’s column” is all that matters. If the final score is Cincy 31 — LA 14, the winning pair of numbers for the final score is Cincy 1 — LA 4.
Many fans have an idea of what numbers are “good” — but can only guess as to how good. Most pools pay a prize at the end of each quarter of the game. Thus, we compute Super Bowl Square Pool probabilities by quarter, based on recent historical results.
Most people prefer numbers like 7, 3, and 0 due to the key numbers associated with touchdowns and field goals. But how often do those numbers hit? And what about the 4, 6, or 1? A few years ago, we took a look at the probabilities of the digits winning at the end of each quarter — based on every Super Bowl ever played. The results were originally published by the New York Times in their Super Bowl Sunday spread several years ago (link below):
This year, we refreshed the results to reflect recent NFL rule changes — as well as the impact of sports analytics and Moneyball — changing coaching decisions. Teams go for a first down more often on fourth down. And teams go for the two-point conversion more often in recent years.
In addition, we computed the probabilities at the end of each quarter. The results are also informed by which team is favored to win the game. The results focus on the last several years’ worth of playoff games.
So, What Numbers Are Good?
For the team that is favored (Los Angeles, this year), the best numbers for the final score are: 7, 1, 0, 3, and 2, in this order. These numbers each have between 22% to 11% chance of hitting — for the final score, based on our data sample.
The best numbers for the underdog’s final score (Cincinnati) are 0, 3 and 1 — in that order.
The 0, 3, and 7 are particularly good to have at the end of the first quarter and first half — favorite or underdog.
By the end of the game, the 7, 1, and 0 are the best overall numbers.
The worst numbers are the 5 and 8, but by the end of the game, almost every number has won in our data set.
Look up your numbers in the charts below to find the percentage of your numbers hitting, for each quarter.
First Quarter Percentage Probabilities
Second Quarter (Halftime)
Third Quarter
Final Score Probabilities
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We will be coming out with our Who Will Win article for this year’s Super Bowl soon!
Carlton Chin holds both graduate and undergraduate degrees from MIT, and is an investment officer and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.
Don La Fronz, CFP, is a financial advisor and originated the idea for this article.