2022 NBA Finals: East Coast meets West Coast
East meets West in the 2022 NBA Finals — as the Boston Celtics face the Golden State Warriors. Which coast will take the NBA championship?
Several years ago, we performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”
Since that time, our published “quant fact predictions” have been correct almost 65% of the time — sometimes picking underdogs to win championships. What do the numbers say about this year’s NBA Finals?
Defense
Our work supports the thesis that defense wins championships. This year’s NBA Finals strongly reinforces this theory because both the Celtics and the Warriors place amongst the league’s best in various defensive categories. While Golden State edges Boston in one advanced defensive metric, Boston’s defense is generally ranked ahead of Golden State in more defensive categories. Edge: Boston.
Consistency
Consistency helps athletes and teams get into a rhythm, especially during pressure-packed championships. Our articles focus on sports psychology and factors that help athletes win. In particular, we like to research factors that can be practiced and worked on — such as hard work and consistency.
Even with the three-point play gaining in importance, FG% is an indication of consistency and control of the game. Golden State edges Boston in this team category. Edge: Golden State.
Leadership
Leadership is a common success factor in everything we study, especially on the court. This is particularly true — and can be quantified — when predicting sports championships. Although we measure leadership differently in every sport, the themes are very common. For instance, in baseball, we look at the top of each team’s starting rotation.
In the NBA, we use the top-scoring player on each team. Using a rules-based quant fact, this favors the Celtics and Jayson Tatum’s 26.9 ppg. On the other hand, Golden State has Steph Curry — one of the truly all-time NBA greats — who averaged 25.9 ppg. Systematic Edge: Boston.
Big Game Experience
Big game experience is associated with winning championships. Teams and players who have “been there before” are more comfortable with the spotlight — and this translates into more titles. Golden State reached the finals three years ago and won the NBA Title in both 2017 and 2018. Edge: Golden State.
Minimizing Errors
To win championships, athletes need to perform at a high level — while minimizing mistakes. Although teams are sometimes relatively close in terms of turnovers, this “quant fact” has been correct about two-thirds of the time for NBA championship series. Both teams were mediocre in this category, but this factor goes to the Celtics because they were in the middle of the pack, while Golden State was below average in turnovers during the regular season. Edge: Boston.
Summary
The Boston Celtics edge the Golden State Warriors 3–2 in our championship factors and are our official quant fact prediction for the 2022 NBA Finals. Enjoy the games!
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Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.
Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com. He has worked with athletes of all levels, including high school athletes and Olympians. He was named one of Golf Digest’s Top Ten Mental Gurus and has been on Good Morning America, the New York Times, and ESPN.