2022 Final Four: Who Will Win?
After a series of upsets — including a run by St. Peter’s (a №15 seed!) into the Elite Eight — the madness of March is winding down. The 2022 Final Four is left with one №1 seed (Kansas), two №2 seeds (Duke and Villanova) and a №8 seed (North Carolina). Who will win this year’s NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament?
The research for this article is based on decades’ worth of championship data across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.” What do our sports psychology quant facts say about this year’s Final Four?
Big Game Experience
“Big game experience” is one of the key factors related to winning the big game. Whether this is due to confidence, experience — or the simple fact that getting to the finals again means that your team is not a fluke — the fact remains that big game experience is correlated to winning title games. Both Kansas and Villanova have played in the Final Four in recent years. In some ways, it is surprising that Duke has not. Edge: Kansas & Villanova.
Consistency — From Long Distance
Today’s college basketball game is heavily influenced by three-point shooting — and the numbers back this up. The team with a higher three-point shooting percentage have won a large majority of championship games. Duke is the leader of this year’s Final Four in this department, followed by North Carolina and then Villanova. Edge: Duke, North Carolina & Villanova (in this order).
Leadership — Coach
For college basketball, we review leadership in two ways. Leadership is key in so many things in life, whether it is in sports, business, or everyday settings. Leadership can focus efforts and more efficiently achieve goals.
Here, we review leadership “behind the bench” — in the form of the coach. Of this year’s Final Four coaches, Duke’s Coach K stands at the head of the class in terms of Final Four wins. Villanova’s Jay Wright and Kansas coach Bill Self are a distant second and third, respectively. Edge: Duke; then Villanova and Kansas.
Leadership — On The Court
Leadership on the court is key to winning titles as well. Stars can often lift their game at key times — and in some ways, ”will” their team to victory. For this championship factor, we review the number of AP All-Americans — both first team and second team — for each team. This is a quantifiable and objective measure that has predicted champions, historically.
Kansas and Duke both boast one All-American each. Edge: Duke (1); Kansas (1).
Defense
Although basketball fans enjoy improved long-range shooting from three-point territory in both college and professional basketball, the numbers show that defense remains a mainstay when it comes to the winning playoff games and championships. History highlights opponent field goal (FG%) as a good defensive measure and championship factor. Of the four teams standing,
Villanova and Kansas rate the best in this area respectively. Duke is a distant third. Edge: Villanova, Kansas, Duke (in this order).
Mental Toughness, Minimizing Errors & Hard Work
Analysts and sports psychologists highlight mental toughness and the ability to minimize errors. While these intangibles are often hard to measure, research has shown that there is a relationship between winning championships and a focus on the fundamentals. For college basketball, we focus on free throw % (FT%). Free throws can be important in tightly-contested games; teams with a higher FT% during the regular season have won close to two-thirds of championship games.
Villanova led the country in this category. Edge: Villanova, North Carolina, Duke (in this order).
Summary
UPDATED for the NCAA Men’s Finals (4/3/2022): Well, the quant facts did not do well in the semi-final match-ups — but let’s see what the championship factors say for the championship game on Monday. Based on the factors summarized above, the official quant fact prediction for the Finals will be on Kansas.
We applied the quant facts to the semi-final match-ups between Kansas-Villanova in Saturday’s early game; and Duke-North Carolina in the later game. Our championship factors pick Villanova and Duke to advance to the championship game. We will update this article once the finalists are determined. Enjoy the games!
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Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.
Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com. He has worked with athletes of all levels, including high school athletes and Olympians. He was named one of Golf Digest’s Top Ten Mental Gurus and has been on Good Morning America, the New York Times, and ESPN.