2021 World Series: Who Will Win? (Skill vs. Luck)
Using more than three decades worth of data across all major sports (including MLB, the NBA, NFL, and NHL), we studied factors related to sports psychology. These factors include leadership, confidence, consistency, minimizing errors, and a focus on hard work and the fundamentals. The results are based on quant fact research with a psychotherapist, Dr. Jay Granat, from about ten years ago.
Quant fact predictions have been published by the Wall Street Journal and NY Times. Over the years, published results have been correct about 65% of the time.
Sports Psychology Quant Facts
The 2021 World Series is almost ready to start. What do the sports psychology quant facts say? Across all sports studied, it is interesting that less-glitzy statistics and factors are what wins championships. This may be true because of the higher level of competition. For instance, in football, the Super Bowl winner is more likely to be the quarterback who has thrown fewer interceptions during the regular season than the flashier quarterback with a higher QB rating and 40 TDs.
Similarly, in baseball, while home runs win regular season games, batting average is a better indicator of consistency and the ability to put together a rally against better pitching. That is, batting average is a better predictor of the World Series champion than home runs.
Skill vs. Luck
And, speaking of competition, the higher level of competition (the championship level in professional sports , for instance) — means that on any given day, anything can happen. That is, if the Houston Astros or Atlanta Braves played a high school team, they would almost certainly win. However, against another professional team, or better yet, in the World Series, there is a certain degree of skill versus luck that comes into play.
With this in mind, we studied the randomness in data across various industries and events.
- For instance, there is much more noise and randomness in sports and investment data than medical and health care data.
- Medical data and how the human body reacts to certain health issues and medications needs to be precise for proper care. Luckily, these relationships are highly correlated so that medical professionals can care for patients and certain types of illnesses.
- Similar to higher certainty in medical data relationships, the results of a chess match are much more related to skill than luck.
- On the other hand, sporting events contain a certain lack of predictability — similar to the path of investment returns.
We analyze the expectation of certain events compared to actual results to study the level of randomness. In effect, we study luck versus skill in various activities. In sports, for instance, we can deconstruct the game into certain statistics (such as points for and points against) that are related to winning and losing — and then compare the results to actual results and won-loss records. We apply this type of analysis across various events and obtain the following results.
- NBA = 78% Skill (and 22% Luck)
- MLB = 67% Skill
- NFL = 62% Skill
- NHL = 51% Skill
- Roulette = 0% Skill, unless you do something like this:
Championship Factors
Our World Series championship factors are related to batting average (as a consistency factor), fielding (hard work and basics), and leadership (in the form of the top of the pitching staff). Interestingly, both the Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros were tops in their respective leagues in fielding.
For many years, fielding was an underrated component of the game, but sports analytics and Moneyball raised awareness of the fundamentals of many sports.
Consistency and Leadership
Houston takes our consistency factor (based on batting average), while Atlanta takes leadership (based on the top of the starting pitching staff for each team). Over decades worth of historical data, these individual factors are related to winning championships at a rate of about 65% or higher.
Big Game Experience & Who Will Win
With the core championship factors tied, we go to our tiebreaker: big game experience. Houston takes this factor because they have reached the World Series three out of the past five years. Atlanta last played in a World Series in 1999. Based on these factors, our sports psychology quant facts predict that the Houston Astros will win the 2021 World Series. Enjoy the games!
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Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer focused on portfolio strategy and data-driven models. Carlton has been a professor at a local university and worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.
Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, named one of America’s Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest, has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. He is the owner of StayInTheZone.com and has authored several books on sport psychology — appearing on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.