2021 Super Bowl Square Pool Odds by Quarter
Do you have your Super Bowl Square Pool box yet? The Super Bowl kicks off this Sunday — and many people are getting in on the popular 10x10 Square Pool. The great thing about these pools is that it is totally random, so if you are watching the game, you have a “fair” rooting interest.
How A Square Pool or Box Pool Works
If you are participating in a square pool (where only the last digit [or one’s column] for each team counts), you select a box on a 10 by 10 grid. Numbers from zero to nine are then randomly assigned across the top and down the side. Thus, each of the 100 boxes represents a digit for each team, such as Kansas City 7, and Tampa Bay 4.
If you haven’t played a square pool or box pool before, here is an example. If the score at the end of first quarter is Kansas City 14 — Tampa Bay 7, the numbers that win the first quarter are KC 4 — TB 7. Remember that the one’s column is all that matters. If the final score is TB 34 — KC 31, the winning pair of numbers for the final score is KC 1 — TB 4.
Many fans have an idea of what numbers are “good” — but can only guess as to how good. Most pools pay a prize at the end of each quarter of the game. Thus, we compute Super Bowl Square Pool probabilities by quarter, based on recent historical results.
Most people prefer numbers like 7, 3, and 0 due to the key numbers associated with touchdowns and field goals. But how often do those numbers hit? And what about the 4, 6, or 1? A few years ago, we took a look at the probabilities of the digits winning at the end of each quarter — based on every Super Bowl ever played. The results were originally published by the New York Times in their Super Bowl Sunday spread several years ago (link below):
This year, we refreshed the results to reflect the NFL’s adoption of the two-point conversion since 1994. We used every Super Bowl — along with Conference Championship games — since 1994. In addition, we computed the probabilities at the end of each quarter. The results are also informed by which team is favored to win the game. The impact of longer distance extra points, since 2015, is trickling into the data.
So, What Numbers Are Good?
For the team that is favored (Kansas City, this year), the best numbers for the final score are: 4, 1, 7, and 3, in this order. These numbers each have about a 14% to 18% chance of hitting — for the final score, based on our data sample.
The best numbers for the underdog’s final score (Tampa Bay) are 4, 7 and 0 — in that order.
The best overall numbers, to win at the end of the game — favorite or underdog — are 4, 7, 1, 0, and 3, as expected. Interestingly, the 8 is next on the list.
The 0, 3, and 7 are particularly good to have at the end of the first quarter and first half.
By the end of the game, the 4 and 7 are the best.
The worst numbers are the 2 and 5, but by the end of the game, almost every number has won in our data set, since 1994. In addition, recent rule changes have increased the chances of the 2 and 5 hitting!
Look up your numbers in the charts below to find the percentage of your numbers hitting, for each quarter.
First Quarter Percentage Probabilities
Second Quarter (Halftime)
Third Quarter
Final Score Probabilities
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Carlton Chin, CFA, holds both graduate & undergraduate degrees from MIT and is an investment officer & “quant” focused on portfolio strategy. Carlton has been a Professor of Probability & Statistics at a local university. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the NBA’s Sacramento Kings and has been quoted by the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.
Don La Fronz, CFP, is a financial advisor and originated the idea for this article.